Nearly a third of American children experience parental divorce before adulthood. To understand its consequences, we use linked tax and Census records for over 5 million children to examine how ...

We examine how the well-being of those with few resources changed, amidst economic disruption and large, transitory government transfers. We find that in the years leading up to the pandemic and in ...

What sparked humanity’s leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human ...

We use high-resolution spatial data to build a novel global annual gridded GDP dataset at 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25° resolutions from 2012 onward. Our random forest model trained on local and national GDP ...

We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched ...

We provide new evidence using a matched difference-in-differences design in rich administrative data from New Zealand. While most outcomes remain stable prior to separation, parents' mental health ...

Trade and industrial policies, while primarily intended to support domestic industries, may unintentionally stimulate technological progress abroad. We document this mechanism in the case of rare ...

Little is known about the extent and drivers of information flow within couples, and whether spouses hold aligned expectations about the same outcomes. To provide new evidence, we conduct an online ...

What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on ...

We argue that issuers' choice of arbitrage concentration reflects a tradeoff: efficient arbitrage improves stablecoin price stability in secondary markets, but amplifies run risks by reducing ...

We argue that firms’ assets, especially their tangible assets, serve as collateral restricting both secured and unsecured debt. Secured debt is explicitly collateralized, placing a lien on specific ...

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We ...