Defending champion Mexico overcame a slow start to defeat the Dominican Republic 3-2 on in the CONCACAF Gold Cup opener.

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mexico win with a probability of 36.98%. A win for Suriname has a probability of 36.12% and a draw has a probability of 26.9%.

Gold Cup kicks off on Saturday, with one of the first matchups of the tournament being between two CONCACAF giants, Mexico and the Dominican Republic.

Mexico are coming off a 4-2 loss to Switzerland, while Turkiye are a few days removed from a 2-1 win over the U.S. men' national team