Since the 1980s, the United States has experienced a pronounced saving glut of the rich, a large accumulation of assets among the top 1% of earners. We argue that this development partly reflects a ...

What happens to an economy when machines can think as well as, or even better than, humans? The Economics of Transformative ...

Rising Social Security Disability Insurance enrollment in the 1990s and 2000s was driven mainly by increasing entry rates among low-skilled women, while falling enrollment since 2013 is mainly due to ...

Pre-analysis plans (PAPs) can improve research reproducibility by reducing researchers’ degrees of freedom, but their value depends on adherence. We argue that large language models (LLMs) can provide ...

We study China’s Grand Canal: when the Mongols moved the capital from the central plain to Beijing, the canal followed, bypassing the economic core it once served. Using a grid-year panel spanning ...

With the growth of sales of e-cigarettes and other alternative nicotine products, governments face the new challenge of crafting public health messages that provide information to consumers about ...

This paper examines an equity-motivated anti-scrappage policy in Brazil using a border-pair design that exploits state variation in the age thresholds for vehicle ownership tax exemptions. Using ...

Will 21st century transportation innovations work against urban density, as the car did in the 20th century, or promote urban centralization, as the railroad did in the 19th century? Reducing the cost ...

The No Surprises Act (NSA) capped patients' liability for surprise bills and established federal final-offer arbitration for insurer–provider payment disputes. Linking arbitration records to the ...

We study a child-focused UPG in rural Malawi that augments the standard graduation bundle with early childhood development (ECD) training, targeting mothers with young children in a population that is ...

The cognitive noise hypothesis is an increasingly popular explanation for a wide range of puzzling regularities in human behavior. Using simple, familiar tools and minimal assumptions drawn from ...

Identifying the impact of capital inflows on output is challenging because inflows are forward-looking and respond to expectations about future economic conditions. We develop a new measure of capital ...