Hurricane models are showing increasingly high chances that a tropical cyclone could form somewhere in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico as early as next week, and forecasters are encouraging Gulf Coast residents to stay vigilant through the remainder of the 2024 season.

Record-warm ocean heat is lingering in the Gulf and Caribbean, but it’s too soon to tell where the likely system could strike, experts say.

As tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean quiets down again, attention is shifting back to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, where the National Hurricane Center is now officially monitoring the area for tropical development.